About the model

About the model

The future outlook scenarios are generated using a system dynamics model, which captures complexity through feedback loops, non-linear interactions, and dynamic relationships between different elements of the food system. While the model is grounded in available data and stylized empirical relationships, such models should not be interpreted as precise prediction tools. Instead, their main value lies in comparing alternative scenarios, exploring the relative importance of different drivers, and understanding which mechanisms may alter the trajectory of the system over time. In this sense, the scenarios are intended to support reflection, learning, and strategic discussion about possible futures under complex and evolving conditions.

Overview of the system dynamics model and its relationships